As of 2017, half of the world population
resides in a nation with a below replacement level population structure (Frejka, 2017). By 2100, however, 97% of the
world will have a fertility below that of the replacement rate – leaving only
six nations able to grow or sustain their population (The Lancet, 2024). Needless to say, declining fertility
rates is a hugely existential and complex, if not highly urgent problem. This
essay, then, will seek to only briefly investigate the fertility crisis by outlining
its causes and repercussions and arguing for what I believe to be the most
promising solution.
Roughly, there are three categories
of causes which have led to a fertility crisis: socio-cultural, economic, and biological.
Socio-cultural factors include secularization,
urbanization and an increasing focus on the quality rather than quantity of
children. According to a poll by Gallup, people are as non-religious as they
have ever been, from 0% of people identifying as non-religious in 1954 to 21%
in 2022 (Newport, 2022). Then, as religiosity is linked to
fertility, this trend has no doubt contributed to a decline in the fertility
rate (Kearney et al., 2023, p. 85). Urbanization also plays an
important role in reducing fertility rates, as when families move into cities,
a demand for manual labor, present in the countryside, but disappears, eliminating a key incentive for
parents to have more children (Bricker, 2021). Also, a cultural shift towards having
less, rather than more, higher quality has tempered parents’ desire for multiple
children (Kearney et al., 2023, p. 84).
Economic factors mainly describe
factors general fears regarding the economy, such as fears of job insecurity
and the increasing costs of raising children. An excellent example of financial
uncertainty causing a decline in fertility is during recessions, as amid such
events, fertility rates have consistently fallen (see fig. 1) (Kearney et al., 2023, p. 83). Moreover, when families are burdened
by debt or when they have little disposable income, they are less likely to
have children (Kearney et al., 2023, pp. 82, 84). Exacerbating this problem is the rising
costs of raising children; in the last decade alone, the cost of childcare had
risen by 28% (USAFacts Team, 2022). As these trends persist, demand
for children will continue to slump (Becker, 1960; Lino, 2017).
Figure
1
US fertility rate trend 1960-2022, overlayed with US recessions
Note.
From Fertility Rate, Total for the United States, by World Bank, 2024. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA).
Copyright 2024 by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Biological factors relate to the
development of contraceptive technology, rising infertility, and reliance on
fertility technology such as in vitro fertilization (IVF). In recent decades,
contraceptive technologies have increasingly been made available. In fact, from
1955 to 1965, an estimated 40% of the reduction in fertility rate was facilitated
by access to contraception (Bailey, 2010, p. 25). Furthermore, studies have shown
that biological factors such as poor semen quality, infertility, and increasing
rates of testicular cancer caused by environmental pollution have also
contributed to a decline in fertility (Skakkebæk
et al., 2022).
Having discussed the causes of the crisis, we can now
proceed with discussion of its ramifications. The main consequence of a
depressed fertility rate is its macroeconomic effect, as the size of the
economy (or GDP) is dependent on the size of its workforce, as well as on the number
of pensioners. According to the Solow Growth Model, GDP is directly
proportional to workforce size; therefore, if the size of the workforce were to
be reduced, then the economy would similarly contract (Solow, 1956). Although ceteris paribus, per
capita GDP would remain constant while the workforce shrinks, a diminished GDP
means that overall spending on public goods may decrease, resulting in a
tighter defense or education budget (Kearney et al., 2023, p. 88). Aside from this, the dependency
ratio is also a key factor affected by falling fertility rates. With less
working age population and more pensioners, the government must spend more in
terms of social benefits and/or the children of the elderly must have greater support
for their parents financially, both of which puts strain on the economy (Kearney
et al., 2023, pp. 91–92). Lastly, inflationary pressure and
curtailed innovation have also been proposed as consequences of the fertility
crisis (Jones, 2022; Kohler et al., 2006,
p. 18).
Despite these detractions, however, there
are perks to low fertility. Under such circumstances, the cost of equipping new
workers would fall, environmental pressures would ease, and the impact of an
increasing skewed dependency ratio is projected to be counterbalanced by
increased investment in human capital, hence improving the efficiency of
workers (Jarzebski et al., 2021, p. 3; Lee
& Mason, 2010, 2014, p. 7). An additional consideration lies
in the increasing automation of many industries, such that demand for human
labor may decrease in the future. However, in spite of presently addressed
concerns, a normative argument could still be made, as by attempting to raise
fertility rate, there are only minor drawbacks, while the potential for
catastrophic consequences if fertility is left unchecked are immense.
When considering potential remedies
to the fertility crisis, perhaps the most conspicuous solution is pro-natal governmental
suasion. Such examples include financial incentives, expanded employment
benefits, subsidized childcare, and housing subsidies. Propagandizing efforts
to change social perceptions of children may also be adopted through art (see
fig. 2), slogans, and other media (Kohler et al., 2006, p. 37). Indeed, this is the method
adopted by many nations around the world today.
Figure
2
A
sculpture in Wuhan, a city in central China, depicted a joyful family of three.
Recently, two more children were added.
Note. From One Three Is
Best: How China’s Family Planning Propaganda Has Changed, by Isabelle Qian
and Pablo Robles, 2024. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/09/world/asia/china-childbirth-propaganda.html).
Copyright 2024 by The New York Times Company.
For an example, we can turn to
Singapore, which began to introduce explicitly pro-natal policies beginning in
2001. Singapore initiated policies to make working environments more accessible
for those wishing to start a family, subsidized reproductive technologies like
IVFs and contraception, and offered low-cost, high-quality formal childcare. These
comprehensive measures, however, achieved only limited success, failing to produce
long-term, concrete results (Tan, 2020).
Rather than direct governmental interference,
I argue that the most effective method of combating low fertility rate around
the world is through the continued focus on implementation of policies which strengthen
and stabilize the overall economy, while adopting a “homeostatic” stance
towards population. Through focusing on fundamental issues such as reducing unemployment,
promoting free international trade, fostering innovation and other such matters,
we absolve people’s insecurities regarding their and their potential children’s
future. This mitigates a central motivation in the reduction of fertility, while
avoiding superfluous governmental interference. Compared to the interventionist
approach, where there exists only a weak correlation between implemented
policies and increases in fertility, focusing on improving future economic outlook
has historically been an effective promoter of economic stability (Kearney
et al., 2023, pp. 93–97; Stern et al., 2022). Additionally, the Easterlin
hypothesis states that as labor supply falls and demand rises, wages also grow,
generating demand for children and inducing a rebound in fertility (Easterlin, 1987; Kohler et al.,
2006, p. 31). Though such a stance towards population planning is currently
theoretical, it seems the most cost-effective and laissez faire solution to the
fertility crisis, letting population dynamics simply be influenced by organic
economic forces.
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