I. Introduction
To
begin our inquiry into the nature of civilizational collapse, a definition of relevant
terms is obligatory.
For
the purposes of this essay, “civilizational collapse” shall be defined as a substantial
decrease of human populations, and/or of political, scientific, or cultural
complexity in some local area.[1]
Here, decreasing complexity is defined as the abandoning of advanced
technology, economic regression, simplification of social bonds, loss of
territory, increased decentralization, reduced trade, and/or curtailed
information exchange.[2]
In
this essay, I contend that civilizations collapse due to anthropological
factors, environmental factors, and anthropogenic climate change (ACC), otherwise known as “global
warming”. Moreover, I argue that our civilization will collapse since
anthropogenic factors are immutable, environmental factors are unreliable and unpreventable,
and ACC exhibits both properties.
II.
Binary Theory of Collapse
The
binary theory of collapse (BTC)
comprises two major constituents (see fig. 1): anthropological and
environmental. The anthropological factors are further divided into two
components, what I will term the collective
and individual factors, the
former stems from biological necessity,[3]
and the latter from genetic circumstance.[4]
Environmental factors are of two causally connected elements: natural disasters
and natural climate fluctuations (NCFs). The former can cause the latter, or, in
rarer instances, be civilization-ending in and of itself. ACC, a uniquely modern product, will
be discussed in section IV.
A.
Anthropological Factors
The
anthropological factors are divided into two strands: collective and individual.
Collective factors have the property of being universally applicable, while
individual factors are restricted to, as the name would suggest, individuals.
There are two basic types of collective factors: sustentative-reproductive and myopic.
Sustentative-reproductive
factors are ones directed towards the maintenance and nourishment of human
beings and the biological want to reproduce. Examples of this include food
production, construction, and manufacturing of health-related products, all of
which are crucial for reproduction. However, we effectuate unintended
destruction of the natural environment, overhunting, overfishing, soil
depletion, salinization, erosion, and so forth.[5]
This leads to a Malthusian population crisis, where population rises above the
productive output of a civilization.
Myopic
factors refer to “present bias” within the human decision-making process, i.e.,
we tend to prefer smaller rewards now, than larger rewards later.[6]
Evolutionarily, uncertainty regarding future rewards have adapted our brain to
prioritize immediate gratification over delayed gratification.[7]
Myopic factors are especially prominent in societies with high Gini ratios. In
such societies, the powerful are potentially unaffected by actions whence they
benefit, while the lower classes suffer the brunt of the negative
ramifications.[8]
For instance, while oil barons would certainly support fracking practices, the
environmental consequences have the greatest effect for the impoverished.[9]
Individual
factors are similarly most applicable for individuals wielding power. There are
two categories of individual factors: egoistic
and irrational. Historic examples
of individual factors are scarce when compared with evidence for the other
factors, though this is not because they are less common. In many
circumstances, records are scant or even non-existent, simply due to the great
magnitude of time which has passed since the collapse of said civilization. Another
possibility is that of revisionist historiography fueled by some ideological
values, perhaps some concerted attempt at removing a figure from the historical
record.[10]
Egoistic
factors pertain to selfishness and indifference to the plight of others.
Selfishness, when combined with substantial amounts of power, can lead to
unwarranted risk taking, abuse of subordinates, aggression, and duplicity, all
of which produces instability and volatility.[11]
Irrational
factors denote acting seemingly without reason and foresight. Often, this may
simply be the result of misinformation, inexperience, or misfortune, not
necessarily an inherent illogicality. Collapse caused by irrational factors can
be likened to the Red Queen Hypothesis, in that such collapse would be irregular
and erratic.[12]
B.
Environmental Factors
Environmental
factors are twofold: natural disasters and natural climate fluctuations.
Natural
disasters have been recorded, though only on rare occasions, to be the direct
cause of civilizational collapse. There have been examples of invasive diseases,
immense floods and volcanic eruptions leading to the destruction of
civilization.[13]
Nonetheless, it should be noted that natural disasters typically only have a
small area of effect, which nullifies it ability to directly injure large
civilizations.
More
frequently, however, it is the NCFs
caused by some natural disaster which carries the most potent destructive
power. For example, a declining, plague-stricken population could cause
reforestation due to their impaired ability to engage in logging. Accordingly,
the natural carbon sink grows, reducing the global temperature, leading to crop
failures.[14]
NCFs
could also occur independently, such as through El Niño and
La Niña, altered ocean currents, Milankovitch cycles, or changes in solar
activity.[15]
These have been recorded to produce adverse effects in civilizations.[16]
III.
Examples
The
collapse of Pacific Island societies provides a striking illustration of the
impacts of the substantive-reproductive factors. The Māori peoples, who, around
the 14th century, settled New Zealand, hunted many native species to
extinction, including the moa and the New Zealand swan.[17]
They also extensively reduced the population of species such as fur seals and
sea lions.[18]
These factors, combined further with comprehensive deforestation, caused a
drastic decline in the local population. Similar trends were observed in other
locations, including the Mangareva, Henderson, and Kaho‘olawe Islands.[19]
Additionally, myopic and anthropogenic factors could have been at play. However,
due to the lack of information regarding the pre-European history of the
Polynesian islands, this is difficult to ascertain.
From
the Late Bronze Age Collapse, we can find numerous examples showcasing the impact
of natural disasters on the environment. The Hekla 3 eruption, occurring around
the 12th century BCE, caused famines and compounded preexisting droughts.[20]
Consequently, human immune systems were weakened, and bubonic plague became
widespread.[21]
The Sea Peoples, often cited as the primary cause for the Late Bronze Age
Collapse, began their exodus to the major Mediterranean civilizations, driven
by droughts of their own.[22]
All the aforementioned factors, combined with the increasing wealth gap of the
Late Bronze Age, led to the downfall of those once mighty pillars of
civilization.[23]
The
Byzantine historian Procopius describes egoistic factors at play in the
collapse of the Western Roman Empire. As he describes, when emperor Honorius
was informed of the sack of Rome in 410 CE, he cried, “And yet it has just
eaten from my hands!”, referring to his favorite pet chicken, coincidentally named
Roma. When it was explained that the city had fallen, and not his pet chicken,
Honorius supposedly sighed with relief.[24]
Though the story is widely believed to be apocryphal, it aptly demonstrates the
incompetence and self-absorption of the ruling elite.[25] Many
of the final Western Roman Emperors in the 5th century shared in
these qualities.[26]
Environmental factors likewise contributed greatly to the fall of the empire. In
the third century, the Northwestern provinces saw climate fluctuations; a
century later, severe droughts forced the Huns to migrate into Roman territory and
ultimately weakened Rome.[27] Extensive
deforestation for arable land and air pollution from incinerated lumber was
also recorded.[28]
Once again, we find that wealth inequality can be observed, as records show
that ~1.4% of the population controlled around 16-29% of the total wealth.[29]
For
another example of individual factors at play in civilizational collapse, we
can turn to the Mughal Empire. Akbar the Great, the founder of the empire, promoted
a policy of religious toleration, in the process improving the governing bureaucracy
and ensuring stability.[30]
However, though the system was carefully maintained by the next two emperors,
emperor Aurangzeb, the third after Akbar, increasingly favored Muslims in his
rulings, abandoning the policy of toleration.[31] Thus,
the Mughal empire became progressively more fractured and debilitated until it
was finally subsumed by the British East India Company in the mid-18th
century.[32]
IV.
Our collapse
Based
on the metrics proposed in the BTC,
it is more than likely that human civilization will collapse. Let us analyze
each factor of the BTC individually and delineate the way in
which they are applicable today:
First,
the sustentative-reproductive factor; namely, the conjoined problems of
overpopulation and food scarcity. Currently, 10% of the world faces chronic
hunger.[33]
By 2050, we would need to double our current agricultural output in order to
meet consumption demands.[34]
However, in attempting to increase agricultural output, we would cause the
toxification and pollution of the environment.[35]
Yet, said pollution cyclically contributes to the stunting of crop yields.[36]
This may result in a positive feedback loop, resulting in both further
environmental degradation and instances of persistent hunger and famine.
Second,
myopic factors, which can be seen in many of the world governments and
international organizations today. For instance, despite progress made against
overconsumption by American President Jimmy Carter in the late 1970s, the
Reagan administration reversed this trend in support of their ideological
values and to curry favor with the oil industry.[37]
More recently, despite the optimistic objectives set during the 2015 Paris
Agreement, none of the top four emitters – the United States, China, the EU,
and India – have met their emission reduction targets.[38]
Third,
individual factors, which can be difficult to identify in the short-term.
However, this factor can be found in the conducts of American President Donald
Trump, who has taken an ambiguous stance towards ACC despite clear
evidence of its existence.[39]
Furthermore, Trump’s Affordable Clean Energy policy, which supplanted the Clean
Power Plan, increased emissions despite aiming to do the opposite.[40]
Fourth,
NCFs. Although mostly overshadowed by ACC, NCFs still play a key
role in global climate variation.[41]
Climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña will continue to impact
precipitation and temperature in the Americas and other parts of the world.[42]
Additionally, solar output levels and Milankovitch cycles will remain, albeit
to a minimal degree, a consideration in climate trends.[43]
Lastly,
we must contend with the greatest existential menace facing humanity today: ACC.[44]
Occupying the divide between the anthropological and environmental factors, ACC is the most concrete and substantial of the previously considered
factors of collapse in our modern day. While originating with human activity, ACC impacts us in ways more akin to environmental factors.[45]
Beginning
with the industrial revolution, global temperature has risen by around 1.1 °C
or 2 °F (see fig. 2), which, despite seemingly being insignificant, has
momentous consequences for the future of civilizations.[46]
The increased temperature leads to more frequent wildfires, increased
destructiveness and regularity of storms, higher frequency of drought, rising
sea levels, magnified health risks, etc.[47]
These
factors, all interconnected and reciprocally collaborating, can contribute to
civilizational collapse, as demonstrated by figure 3.[48]
When compared with past climate events, ACC is of a much greater magnitude.[49] Despite
modern scientific advancements in reducing emissions and green energy, global
temperatures are expected to continue to rise well into the future.[50]
Taking into account the effect climate change events have had on human
civilizations hitherto, the future seems bleak.[51]
Lastly, with the advent of
globalization, the collapse of one civilization could spread to other nations
at an alarming rate. If a pandemic on the scale of the 1917 Spanish Flu were to
occur in the modern day, it would kill nearly 33 million people in just the first
six months.[52]
We can reasonably conclude that the magnitude of civilizational collapses in
the contemporary era would surpass all previous collapses witnessed in the
Anthropocene.[53]
V.
Conclusion
Supported
by the aforementioned factors, I thus assert that civilizations collapse due to
anthropological factors, environmental factors, and, more recently, ACC. In
addition, as the evidence compiled in section IV would suggest, I contend that
our civilization will collapse.
Appendix
Figure 1. Venn diagram representing the binary theory of collapse. (Chart by author)
Figure 2. The change in global temperature since 0AD, Chart, “Global temperature change over the last 2019 years,” from Ed Hawkin, 2019 years.
Figure 3. Causal loop diagram illustrating
global climate failure, Chart, “Cascading global climate failure,” from Kemp et
al., “Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios”, PNAS, 119, no.34 (2022), fig. 3,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119.
Endnotes
[1] Diamond,
“Ecological Collapses of Past Civilizations,” 363.
[2] The Collapse
of Complex Societies - Professor Joseph Tainter; Dourado, “A Beginner’s
Guide to Sociopolitical Collapse”; Tainter, The Collapse of Complex
Societies, chap. 1.
[3] Santos and
Rosati, “The Evolutionary Roots of Human Decision Making,” 13.
[4] Goriounova and
Mansvelder, “Genes, Cells and Brain Areas of Intelligence,” 8; Wu et al., “The
Genetic Mechanism of Selfishness and Altruism in Parent-Offspring
Coadaptation,” 1–3.
[5] Jared
Diamond- Collapse.
[6] Chakraborty,
“Present Bias,” 1.
[7] Albrecht et
al., “What Do I Want and When Do I Want It,” 1.
[8] Paulson Jr.,
“Short-Termism and the Threat from Climate Change | McKinsey.”
[9] Lin-Schweitzer,
“Integrated Effort Needed to Mitigate Fracking While Protecting Both Humans and
the Environment.”
[10] Burton,
“Akhenaten”; Gessen, “The Photo Book That Captured How the Soviet Regime Made
the Truth Disappear.”
[11] Simmons, “How
Narcissistic Leaders Destroy from Within”; Blanton et al., “Moral Collapse and
State Failure,” 9–10.
[12] Kemp, “Are We
on the Road to Civilisation Collapse?”
[13] Ehrenpreis and
Ehrenpreis, “A Historical Perspective of Healthcare Disparity and Infectious
Disease in the Native American Population,” 289; Rincon, “Prehistoric North Sea
‘Atlantis’ Hit by 5m Tsunami”; Pearson et al., “Annual Radiocarbon Record
Indicates 16th Century BCE Date for the Thera Eruption,” 1.
[14] Nevle et al.,
“Neotropical Human–Landscape Interactions, Fire, and Atmospheric CO2 during
European Conquest,” 9; Juurakko, diCenzo, and Walker, “Cold Acclimation and
Prospects for Cold-Resilient Crops.”
[15] Loury,
“DROUGHT”; Wanamaker et al., “Surface Changes in the North Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation during the Last Millennium,” 1; Berger, Loutre, and
Mélice, “Equatorial Insolation,” 6; Lockwood et al., “Are Cold Winters in
Europe Associated with Low Solar Activity?,” 5–6.
[16] “Did Climate
Influence Angkor’s Collapse?”; Gill et al., “DROUGHT AND THE MAYA COLLAPSE,”
292.
[17] Walter et al.,
“Mass Migration and the Polynesian Settlement of New Zealand,” 358; Allentoft
et al., “Extinct New Zealand Megafauna Were Not in Decline before Human
Colonization,” 4922; Rawlence et al., “Ancient DNA and Morphometric Analysis
Reveal Extinction and Replacement of New Zealand’s Unique Black Swans,” 1.
[18] Wilmshurst,
“Pre-European Deforestation”; Emami-Khoyi et al., “Mitogenomics Data Reveal
Effective Population Size, Historical Bottlenecks, and the Effects of Hunting
on New Zealand Fur Seals (Arctocephalus Forsteri),” 1.
[19] Fagan, The
Great Warming, 5; Diamond, Collapse, 132; Rolett and Diamond,
“Environmental Predictors of Pre-European Deforestation on Pacific Islands,”
443; Diamond, “Ecological Collapses of Past Civilizations,” 366.
[20] Baker et al.,
“The Hekla 3 Volcanic Eruption Recorded in a Scottish Speleothem?,” 340; Yurko,
“End of the Late Bronze Age and Other Crisis Periods: A Volcanic Cause?,”
456–58; Manning et al., “Severe Multi-Year Drought Coincident with Hittite
Collapse around 1198–1196 BC,” 719.
[21] Spyrou et al.,
“Analysis of 3800-Year-Old Yersinia Pestis Genomes Suggests Bronze Age Origin
for Bubonic Plague,” 1.
[22] Carpenter, Discontinuity
in Greek Civilization, 16–17.
[23] Weisweiler,
“Inequality”; Basri and Lawrence, “Wealth Inequality in the Ancient Near East,”
20–22.
[24] Procopius, History
of the Wars, Books III and IV.
[25] Gibbon, The
History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, 643.
[26] The Editors of
Encyclopaedia Britannica, “Majorian.”
[27] McCormick et
al., “Climate Change during and after the Roman Empire,” 185; McCormick et al.,
190–91.
[28] Harris, The
Ancient Mediterranean Environment between Science and History, 173;
Erskine, A Companion to Ancient History, 171.
[29] Scheidel and
Friesen, “The Size of the Economy and the Distribution of Income in the Roman
Empire,” 76.
[30] Ballhatchet,
“Akbar”; Stein, A History of India, 159.
[31] Pletcher, The
History of India, 183.
[32] Blanton et al.,
“Moral Collapse and State Failure,” 8; “What Was the East India Company?”
[33] Omer, “Global
Hunger.”
[34] Ranganathan et
al., “How to Sustainably Feed 10 Billion People by 2050, in 21 Charts.”
[35] Chowdhury et
al., “Does Agricultural Ecology Cause Environmental Degradation?,” 3.
[36] Jordan,
“Pollution and Crops.”
[37] McKibben and
Speth, “They Knew: How the U.S. Government Helped Cause the Climate Crisis.”
[38] Bearak and
Popovich, “The World Is Falling Short of Its Climate Goals. Four Big Emitters
Show Why.”
[39] Cheung, “What
Does Trump Actually Believe on Climate Change?”
[40] Keyes et al.,
“The Affordable Clean Energy Rule and the Impact of Emissions Rebound on Carbon
Dioxide and Criteria Air Pollutant Emissions,” 9.
[41] Shaftel,
“Climate Change.”
[42] Halpert,
“United States El Niño Impacts | NOAA Climate.Gov.”
[43] NASA Science
Editorial Team, “What Is the Sun’s Role in Climate Change?”; NASA Science
Editorial Team, “Why Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles Can’t Explain Earth’s
Current Warming - NASA Science.”
[44] United Nations,
“Climate Change ‘Biggest Threat Modern Humans Have Ever Faced’,
World-Renowned Naturalist Tells Security Council, Calls for Greater
Global Cooperation.”
[45] Intergovernmental
panel on climate change, Climate Change 2013, 896.
[46] Lindsey and
Dahlman, “Climate Change.”
[47] Diffenbaugh,
Konings, and Field, “Atmospheric Variability Contributes to Increasing Wildfire
Weather but Not as Much as Global Warming,” 1; Aumann, Ruzmaikin, and Teixeira,
“Frequency of Severe Storms and Global Warming,” 4; Dai, “Drought under Global
Warming,” 14–16; Cook et al., “Global Warming and 21st Century Drying,” 1;
Meehl et al., “How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?,” 1; Vermeer,
Rahmstorf, and Clark, “Global Sea Level Linked to Global Temperature,” 5; US
EPA, “Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality”; United Nations, “Causes and
Effects of Climate Change.”
[48] Kanter,
“Scientist”; Kemp et al., “Climate Endgame,” 7.
[49] “Global
Warming.”
[50] Center for
Science Education, “Predictions of Future Global Climate.”
[51] National
Geographic Society, National Geographic Essential Visual History of the
World, 190–91.
[52] Gates,
“Shattuck Lecture Innovation for Pandemics.”
[53] Juling, “Future
Bioterror and Biowarfare Threats for NATO’s Armed Forces until 2030.”
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